Risk Factors Associated with Mortality Among Patients with Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Africa

Mohammed M.,
Muhammad S.,
Mohammed F.Z.,
Mustapha S.,
Sha’aban A.,
Sani N.Y.,
Ahmad M.H.,
Bala A.A.,
Ungogo M.A.,
Alotaibi N.M.,
Zainal H.
Document Type
Source Title
Journal of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities
Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH


Background: The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in China and later spread rapidly to other parts of the world, including Africa. Africa was projected to be devastated by COVID-19. There is currently limited data regarding regional predictors of mortality among patients with COVID-19. This study aimed to evaluate the independent risk factors associated with mortality among patients with COVID-19 in Africa. Methods: A total of 1028 confirmed cases of COVID-19 from Africa with definite survival outcomes were identified retrospectively from an open-access individual-level worldwide COVID-19 database. The live version of the dataset is available at https://github.com/beoutbreakprepared/nCoV2019. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to determine the risk factors that independently predict mortality among patients with COVID-19 in Africa. Results: Of the 1028 cases included in study, 432 (42.0%) were females with a median (interquartile range, IQR) age of 50 (24) years. Older age (adjusted odds ratio {aOR} 1.06; [95% confidence intervals {95% CI}, 1.04–1.08]), presence of chronic disease (aOR 9.63; [95% CI, 3.84–24.15]), travel history (aOR 2.44; [95% CI, 1.26–4.72]), as well as locations of Central Africa (aOR 0.14; [95% CI, 0.03–0.72]) and West Africa (aOR 0.12; [95% CI, 0.04–0.32]) were identified as the independent risk factors significantly associated with increased mortality among the patients with COVID-19. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic is evolving gradually in Africa. Among patients with COVID-19 in Africa, older age, presence of chronic disease, travel history, and the locations of Central Africa and West Africa were associated with increased mortality. A regional response should prioritize strategies that will protect these populations. Also, conducting a further in-depth study could provide more insights into additional factors predictive of mortality in COVID-19 patients. © 2020, W. Montague Cobb-NMA Health Institute.

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