Quantitative evaluation on control measures for an epidemic: A case study of COVID-19 [疫情管控效果的一种定量化评估方法: 以COVID-19为例]
The spread of an epidemic should be a phenomenon governed by the natural growth law: More infected beget more infections. This basic rule would be useful especially when an outbreak is caused by a novel virus with its basic characteristics full of unknowns so much that there would be too many uncertainties that would be impossible for anyone to run the traditional epidemiological model meaningfully. The natural growth law does not depend on the detailed characteristics of the virus.