Craig A.T.,
Heywood A.E.,
Hall J.
Document Type
Source Title
Epidemiology and Infection
Cambridge University Press


On 30 January 2020, WHO declared coronavirus (COVID-19) a global public health emergency. As of 12 March 2020, 125,048 confirmed COVID-19 cases in 118 countries had been reported. On 12 March 2020, the first case in the Pacific islands was reported in French Polynesia; no other Pacific island country or territory has reported cases. The purpose of our analysis is to show how travellers may introduce COVID-19 into the Pacific islands and discuss the role robust health systems play in protecting health and reducing transmission risk. We analyse travel- A nd Global Health Security Index-data using a scoring tool to produce quantitative estimates of COVID-19 importation risk, by departing and arriving country. Our analysis indicates that, as of 12 March 2020, the highest risk air routes by which COVID-19 may be imported into the Pacific islands are from east Asian countries (specifically, China, Korea and Japan) to north Pacific airports (likely Guam, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands or, to a less extent, Palau); or from China, Japan, Singapore, the United States of America or France to south Pacific ports (likely, Fiji, Papua New Guinea French Polynesia, or New Caledonia). Other importation routes include from other east Asian countries to Guam, and from Australia, New Zealand and other European countries to the south Pacific. The tool provides a useful method for assessing COVID-19 importation risk and may be useful in other settings. ᄅ 2020 Cambridge University Press. All rights reserved.

Disease epidemiology and mathematical modelling
Migration angle
Region/Country (by coverage)
Index Keywords

airport; article; Australia; aviation; China; clinical article; Fiji; France; French Polynesia; global health; Guam; Japan; Korea; New Caledonia; New Zealand; Northern Mariana Islands; Palau; Papua New Guinea; quantitative analysis; risk assessment; Singapore; United States; Betacoronavirus; communicable disease; Coronavirinae; Coronavirus infection; global health; health survey; human; Pacific islands; pandemic; Polynesia; virus pneumonia; Air Travel; Betacoronavirus; China; Communicable Diseases, Imported; Coronavirus; Coronavirus Infections; Global Health; Humans; Pacific Islands; Pandemics; Pneumonia, Viral; Polynesia; Population Surveillance