Across diverse contexts, emerging evidence suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic is increasing levels of anxiety and stress. In calling for greater attention to people’s psychosocial and emotional well-being, global actors have paid insufficient attention to the realities of the pandemic in low- and middle-income countries, where millions of people are already exposed to intersecting vulnerabilities. Chronic poverty, protracted violence, conflict and displacement, coupled with weak health, education and protection systems, provide the backdrop of many adolescents’ lives.
We explore the spread of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Lebanon by adopting two different approaches: The STEIR model, which is a modified SEIR model accounting for the effect of travel, and a repeated iterations model. We fit available daily data since the first diagnosed case until the end of June 2020 and we forecast possible scenarios of contagion associated with different levels of social distancing measures and travel inflows. We determine the initial reproductive transmission rate in Lebanon and all subsequent dynamics.
[No abstract available]