Pandemia di COVID-19: un modello SEIR dipendente dalla mobilità e con stima dei casi nascosti in Italia, Europa e Stati Uniti [COVID-19 pandemic: a mobility-dependent SEIR model with undetected cases in Italy, Europe, and US]
OBJECTIVES: to describe the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on undetected cases and to evaluate different post-lockdown scenarios. DESIGN: the study introduces a SEIR compartmental model, taking into account the region-specific fraction of undetected cases, the effects of mobility restrictions, and the personal protective measures adopted, such as wearing a mask and washing hands frequently. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the model is experimentally validated with data of all the Italian regions, some European countries, and the US.