Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data

Zhuang Z.,
Zhao S.,
Lin Q.,
Cao P.,
Lou Y.,
Yang L.,
He D.
Document Type
Source Title
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
Elsevier B.V.


As of March 1, 2020, Iran had reported 987 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, including 54 associated deaths. At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) had reported imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. In this study, air travel data and the numbers of cases from Iran imported into other Middle Eastern countries were used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in Iran. It was estimated that the total number of cases in Iran was 16 533 (95% confidence interval: 5925ヨ35 538) by February 25, 2020, before the UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries suspended inbound and outbound flights from Iran. ᄅ 2020 The Author(s)

Migration angle
Region/Country (by coverage)
Index Keywords

Article; aviation; coronavirus disease 2019; human; Iran; preliminary data; screening; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2